Set a FIRE goal

A FIRE goal in Haven has two pieces: the number you want to reach and the year you want to reach it. The simulator works with whatever you put in, but the closer your inputs are to the life you actually want, the more useful everything downstream becomes.

Open Goals

From the sidebar choose Goals, then click New Goal. Pick FIRE as the goal type. You can have multiple FIRE goals — say, a Lean FIRE number and a Fat FIRE number — but most people start with one.

Pick a target number

A reasonable starting place: the annual spending you'd be comfortable with in retirement, multiplied by 25. That's the inverse of a 4 % withdrawal rate, which is the rough rule that sits behind most early-retirement math.

Examples:

• $40,000/yr lifestyle → $1,000,000 target
• $80,000/yr lifestyle → $2,000,000 target
• $150,000/yr lifestyle → $3,750,000 target

The 25× heuristic is a starting point, not a guarantee. It assumes a balanced portfolio and a 30-year horizon. Haven's Monte Carlo will tell you the real success probability for the number you pick, given your asset mix and time horizon.

If you're not sure what you'd spend in retirement, use your current spending as a stand-in. Most people overestimate how much their lifestyle changes after they stop working.

Pick a target date

Two ways to think about this:

1. Pick the age you want to be free — say 50 — and Haven works backwards to tell you whether your current savings rate gets you there.
2. Pick a savings rate you can actually sustain and let the date land where it lands.

If you're early in your career, option 2 is usually more honest. Forcing a date you can't reach without unsustainable contributions just produces a chart that looks good and a plan you'll abandon.

What Haven does next

Once your goal is saved, the dashboard shows progress toward it. Three signals matter:

• Percentage to target — net worth divided by FIRE number. Hits 100 % the day you cross the line.
• Projected FIRE date — where the trajectory of your savings rate, growth assumptions, and current net worth lands you. Updates every time you snapshot.
• Chance of success — the Monte Carlo number. The probability that your portfolio survives a 30-year retirement at your target spending, given historical market volatility.

Chance of success is the one to watch. A 90 %+ number means the plan is robust to normal market volatility. Below 70 % means the plan is fragile — small changes (a recession at the wrong time, a slightly higher spending need) can break it.

When to revisit

Re-check the goal when something material changes:

• You get married, partnered, or your household changes.
• A big income shift — promotion, layoff, side business.
• Your spending shape changes — moving to a lower-cost area, or the opposite.
• You inherit something or take on a major liability.

Outside those, leave the goal alone. Tweaking the target every month becomes its own form of procrastination.